About Aleksandr Kovyazin
When I was young I played hockey. I have spent a lot of time for training. I was the champion of the city and the third in the country (Russia). I wanted to play hockey and just studied in college as a beer technologist allow me to continue playing. After college, I had finished my professional career by hockey and started an education in chemistry. During this time I was in the national military one year. It is necessary for each man in Russia. I didn't have another choice. When I studied I have learned economic as well. And I promised to me to develop skills in finance over free time. After finishing the chemistry degree I worked in the laboratory. However, I had thought about my health and decided to try myself in finance. But I didn't have the opportunity to work in that direction because I didn't have the specific education and enough skills.
I decided to get the necessary knowledge in the State University of Saint- Petersburg. I was invited at the Moody's Investor's Summit in London. The topic was Emerging Markets Summit, Broadening Recovery and Persistent Risks. During the studying, I was an exchange student at Peking University (China). It was an unforgettable experience. I have studied for 6 months. I met new friends got up my communication skills and opened interests. For example, I have launched educating myself in computer engineering and informational technologies. Now I'm finishing a master degree in economics. My topic of the diploma is Rating agencies and methodology of rating. I really active guy and enthusiastic in achievements and I'm looking for opportunities in computer technologies development because to automate processes around us especially in finance.
Research of rating agencies
"International credit rating: appointment, methodology, procedures, the practice of the sovereign, financial institutions and companies (Case for Russia)"
The rating agency's reports are influenced by the efficient of World capital flows. There are methodological relatives of agencies in the framework of prediction credit ratings of sovereign, financial and non-financial organizations. It will be helpful for investors and issuers to understand the work of agencies.
The goal of the Master of Thesis is to select methodological rating dependencies of states, financial institutions, and companies. Following tasks have been solved:
to learn the historical evolution of the rating agencies;
to define indicators and crucial factors which have an influence on the sovereign rating;
to calculate the probability and distance to default (case for "Petrol company Lukoil") by the KMV-Merton model;
to estimate the effect of macroeconomic indicators and to forecast the rating of the state (for example Russia Federation).
The dissertation consists of 3 parts. The first chapter is about the theoretic aspects of the beginning of the rating agencies and financial market participant's issues. The second chapter focuses on the method of forecasting default probability (we use "Petrol company Lukoil" as an example). The third chapter found the correlation between Russian rating and macroeconomic indicators depending on their weight.
The scientific novelty is developing sovereign rating by regression models. The final result consists of an evaluation of the key indicators and factors that influence the sovereign rating. There are some recommendations to the Central Bank of Russia, to the Ministries of Economic Development and Finance for increasing a rating according to the analysis's outcomes. Approaches and methods of the calculating default's probability were suggested to be used in practice. Computation of probability and distance of default will be useful for commercial guidance to upgrade the rating.